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Options expected move calculator

Project a stock’s expected move and probable range from implied volatility.

Runs 100% in your browser
Expected move (±1σ)
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1σ range (~68%)
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2σ range (~95%)
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How to calculate the expected move

  1. Enter the stock price. Type the current price of the stock or index.
  2. Enter IV and days. Add the implied volatility (%) and days until your date or expiration.
  3. Read the move and range. See the expected dollar move, percent, and the 1σ / 2σ price ranges.

How traders use the expected move

The expected move frames a trade: it tells you the range option prices are pricing in before earnings or an expiration, which helps set strikes and judge whether a move has already been "priced in." It is the same √time scaling behind the rule of 16. Get the IV input from the implied-volatility calculator.

Educational tool only — not financial advice. The expected move is a probability estimate assuming a normal distribution, not a guarantee. Options trading carries a high level of risk.

Frequently asked questions

What is the expected move?
The expected move is roughly one standard deviation of where a stock could be by a date, implied by option prices. It is calculated as stock price × implied volatility × √(days ÷ 365), and there is about a 68% chance the stock finishes within that range.
What do 1σ and 2σ mean?
About 68% of the time the stock should land within ±1 standard deviation (1σ), and about 95% within ±2σ — assuming a normal distribution. They are probabilities, not guarantees.
Calendar days or trading days?
Implied volatility is quoted on a calendar-year basis, so this uses calendar days ÷ 365. Some traders prefer trading days; the difference is small for short windows.
Where do I get the IV?
Use the at-the-money implied volatility for your expiration. The implied-volatility calculator backs it out from an option’s market price.
Is anything sent to a server?
No — everything is computed in your browser.

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